FC Basel 1893 1–0 Grasshoppers: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Grasshoppers

B. Traore 51'

3/5/2026

Super League · Round 28St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Basel 189347%

×Draw25%

Grasshoppers28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchGrasshoppers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.15

FC Basel 1893

1.56

Grasshoppers

1.15

FC Basel 1893 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.90

creates per match

1.20

1.09

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

1.90

Grasshoppers

1.20

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

1.09

Grasshoppers

1.23

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.15scores less

Grasshoppers-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

Grasshoppers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

72%

FC Basel 1893 or Grasshoppers

75%

Draw or Grasshoppers

53%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

24%

Grasshoppers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

79%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

46%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

21%

Grasshoppers 1+ goals

68%

Grasshoppers 2+ goals

32%

Grasshoppers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

62%

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.09 · 8 matches

Grasshoppers away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.23 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.90 + Grasshoppers defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.56

Grasshoppers attack 1.20 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

47%

level

25%

Grasshoppers scores more

28%

FC Basel 1893 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Hitz

FC Basel 1893 · G

8.0

Match Events

27'

K. Ruegg← K. Tsunemoto

46'

I. Salah← X. Shaqiri

51'

B. Traore↳ I. Salah

61'

A. Abrashi← H. Imourane

61'

F. Tsimba← L. Plange

66'

K. Koindredi← L. Leroy

66'

J. Duranville← B. Traore

73'

S. Krasniqi← D. Abels

74'

75'

82'

85'

90+5'

90+4'

90+4'

Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom

90+5'

Amir Abrashi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCGrasshoppers

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots16

0.94Expected Goals (xG)0.89

4Corners9

6Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots16

4On Target5

4Off Target6

3Blocked5

7Inside Box12

4Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

441Total Passes419

356Accurate Passes342

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

-0.10Goals Prevented-0.10

Discipline

6Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0