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Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893 — Super League 2018

Grasshoppers
Grasshoppers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
2/17/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Grasshoppers39%
×Draw25%
FC Basel 189337%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grasshoppers
1.48
FC Basel 1893
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 5 away

creates per match

Grasshoppers
1.48
FC Basel 1893
1.46

allows per match

Grasshoppers
1.42
FC Basel 1893
1.47

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.24scores more
FC Basel 1893-0.06on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw
63%
Grasshoppers or FC Basel 1893
75%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
61%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+
18%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals
77%
Grasshoppers 2+ goals
43%
Grasshoppers 3+ goals
19%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
76%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
42%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)
51%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 29 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.47 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.48 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.46 + Grasshoppers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grasshoppers scores more
39%
level
25%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
37%

Grasshoppers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Grasshoppers 2–1 FC Basel 1893

Grasshoppers beat FC Basel 1893 2-1 in Super League on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Letzigrund in Zürich.