Grasshopper W 2–3 Servette Chênois W

Grasshopper W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Servette Chênois W

10/19/2025

AXA Women’s Super League · Round 8GC/Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Grasshopper W27%

×Draw24%

Servette Chênois W49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grasshopper WExpected goals in this matchServette Chênois W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.74

Grasshopper W

1.23

Servette Chênois W

1.74

Servette Chênois W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 70 away

1.90

creates per match

2.24

1.23

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Grasshopper W

1.90

Servette Chênois W

2.24

allows per match

Grasshopper W

1.23

Servette Chênois W

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grasshopper W+0.00on par

Servette Chênois W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshopper W ↓

Servette Chênois W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Grasshopper W or draw

51%

Grasshopper W or Servette Chênois W

76%

Draw or Servette Chênois W

73%

Winning margin

Grasshopper W wins by 2+

11%

Servette Chênois W wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Grasshopper W 1+ goals

71%

Grasshopper W 2+ goals

35%

Grasshopper W 3+ goals

13%

Servette Chênois W 1+ goals

82%

Servette Chênois W 2+ goals

52%

Servette Chênois W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Grasshopper W (draw refunded)

35%

Servette Chênois W (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshopper W at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

Servette Chênois W away — creates 2.24, concedes 0.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshopper W attack 1.90 + Servette Chênois W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

Servette Chênois W attack 2.24 + Grasshopper W defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Grasshopper W scores more

27%

level

24%

Servette Chênois W scores more

49%

Servette Chênois W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Servette Chênois W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff