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Grasshopper II vs Rotkreuz — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Grasshopper II
Grasshopper II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rotkreuz
Rotkreuz
8/24/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4GC/Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Grasshopper II59%
×Draw21%
Rotkreuz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grasshopper II
2.14
Rotkreuz
1.19

Grasshopper II creates 80% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 45 away

creates per match

Grasshopper II
2.49
Rotkreuz
1.22

allows per match

Grasshopper II
1.16
Rotkreuz
1.78

finishing

Grasshopper II+0.00on par
Rotkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshopper II ↓

Rotkreuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Grasshopper II or draw
79%
Grasshopper II or Rotkreuz
79%
Draw or Rotkreuz
41%

Winning margin

Grasshopper II wins by 2+
36%
Rotkreuz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Grasshopper II 1+ goals
88%
Grasshopper II 2+ goals
63%
Grasshopper II 3+ goals
36%
Rotkreuz 1+ goals
70%
Rotkreuz 2+ goals
33%
Rotkreuz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Grasshopper II (draw refunded)
74%
Rotkreuz (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshopper II at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

Rotkreuz away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshopper II attack 2.49 + Rotkreuz defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.14

Rotkreuz attack 1.22 + Grasshopper II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Grasshopper II scores more
59%
level
21%
Rotkreuz scores more
21%

Grasshopper II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Grasshopper II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Grasshopper II 2–2 Rotkreuz

Grasshopper II and Rotkreuz drew 2-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at GC/Campus in Niederhasli.