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Grasshopper II vs Linth — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Grasshopper II
Grasshopper II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Linth
Linth
8/23/20231. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4GC/Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Grasshopper II50%
×Draw23%
Linth27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grasshopper II
1.85
Linth
1.29

Grasshopper II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 74 away

creates per match

Grasshopper II
1.70
Linth
1.47

allows per match

Grasshopper II
1.10
Linth
2.00

finishing

Grasshopper II+0.00on par
Linth+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshopper II ↓

Linth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Grasshopper II or draw
73%
Grasshopper II or Linth
77%
Draw or Linth
50%

Winning margin

Grasshopper II wins by 2+
28%
Linth wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Grasshopper II 1+ goals
84%
Grasshopper II 2+ goals
55%
Grasshopper II 3+ goals
28%
Linth 1+ goals
72%
Linth 2+ goals
37%
Linth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Grasshopper II (draw refunded)
65%
Linth (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshopper II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Linth away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.00 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshopper II attack 1.70 + Linth defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Linth attack 1.47 + Grasshopper II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Grasshopper II scores more
50%
level
23%
Linth scores more
27%

Grasshopper II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Grasshopper II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 3: Grasshopper II 1–3 Linth

Linth beat Grasshopper II 3-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at GC/Campus in Niederhasli.