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Grasshopper II vs Kreuzlingen — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Grasshopper II
Grasshopper II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kreuzlingen
Kreuzlingen
11/18/20231. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15GC/Campus - Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Grasshopper II46%
×Draw24%
Kreuzlingen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grasshopper II
1.71
Kreuzlingen
1.35

Grasshopper II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Grasshopper II
1.70
Kreuzlingen
1.60

allows per match

Grasshopper II
1.10
Kreuzlingen
1.71

finishing

Grasshopper II+0.00on par
Kreuzlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshopper II ↓

Kreuzlingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Grasshopper II or draw
70%
Grasshopper II or Kreuzlingen
76%
Draw or Kreuzlingen
54%

Winning margin

Grasshopper II wins by 2+
24%
Kreuzlingen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Grasshopper II 1+ goals
82%
Grasshopper II 2+ goals
51%
Grasshopper II 3+ goals
24%
Kreuzlingen 1+ goals
74%
Kreuzlingen 2+ goals
39%
Kreuzlingen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Grasshopper II (draw refunded)
60%
Kreuzlingen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshopper II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Kreuzlingen away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshopper II attack 1.70 + Kreuzlingen defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kreuzlingen attack 1.60 + Grasshopper II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Grasshopper II scores more
46%
level
24%
Kreuzlingen scores more
30%

Grasshopper II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Grasshopper II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 3: Grasshopper II 0–1 Kreuzlingen

Kreuzlingen beat Grasshopper II 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at GC/Campus - Platz 4 in Niederhasli.