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Grasshopper II vs Köniz — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Grasshopper II
Grasshopper II
FT
3 – 3
Köniz
Köniz
10/3/20211. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7GC/Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Grasshopper II56%
×Draw21%
Köniz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grasshopper II
2.08
Köniz
1.25

Grasshopper II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 43 away

creates per match

Grasshopper II
2.49
Köniz
1.35

allows per match

Grasshopper II
1.16
Köniz
1.67

finishing

Grasshopper II+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshopper II ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Grasshopper II or draw
77%
Grasshopper II or Köniz
79%
Draw or Köniz
44%

Winning margin

Grasshopper II wins by 2+
34%
Köniz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Grasshopper II 1+ goals
87%
Grasshopper II 2+ goals
61%
Grasshopper II 3+ goals
34%
Köniz 1+ goals
71%
Köniz 2+ goals
36%
Köniz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Grasshopper II (draw refunded)
71%
Köniz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshopper II at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshopper II attack 2.49 + Köniz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Köniz attack 1.35 + Grasshopper II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Grasshopper II scores more
56%
level
21%
Köniz scores more
23%

Grasshopper II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Grasshopper II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grasshopper II vs Köniz

Grasshopper II and Köniz drew 3-3 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at GC/Campus in Niederhasli.