Grasshopper II 3–2 Balzers: Result & Stats

Grasshopper II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Balzers

8/13/2023

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2GC/Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Grasshopper II59%

×Draw20%

Balzers20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grasshopper IIExpected goals in this matchBalzers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.17

Grasshopper II

2.15

Balzers

1.17

Grasshopper II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 41 away

1.70

creates per match

1.24

1.10

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Grasshopper II

1.70

Balzers

1.24

allows per match

Grasshopper II

1.10

Balzers

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grasshopper II+0.00on par

Balzers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshopper II ↓

Balzers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Grasshopper II or draw

80%

Grasshopper II or Balzers

80%

Draw or Balzers

41%

Winning margin

Grasshopper II wins by 2+

37%

Balzers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Grasshopper II 1+ goals

88%

Grasshopper II 2+ goals

63%

Grasshopper II 3+ goals

36%

Balzers 1+ goals

69%

Balzers 2+ goals

33%

Balzers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Grasshopper II (draw refunded)

75%

Balzers (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshopper II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Balzers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.61 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshopper II attack 1.70 + Balzers defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.15

Balzers attack 1.24 + Grasshopper II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Grasshopper II scores more

59%

level

20%

Balzers scores more

20%

Grasshopper II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Grasshopper II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff