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Grapiuna U20 vs Conquista U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Grapiuna U20
Grapiuna U20
FT
2 – 3
Conquista U20
Conquista U20
3/16/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Jonival Lucas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Grapiuna U2046%
×Draw26%
Conquista U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grapiuna U20
1.46
Conquista U20
1.06

Grapiuna U20 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Grapiuna U20
1.63
Conquista U20
0.86

allows per match

Grapiuna U20
1.26
Conquista U20
1.29

finishing

Grapiuna U20+0.00on par
Conquista U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grapiuna U20 ↓

Conquista U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Grapiuna U20 or draw
73%
Grapiuna U20 or Conquista U20
74%
Draw or Conquista U20
54%

Winning margin

Grapiuna U20 wins by 2+
23%
Conquista U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Grapiuna U20 1+ goals
77%
Grapiuna U20 2+ goals
43%
Grapiuna U20 3+ goals
18%
Conquista U20 1+ goals
65%
Conquista U20 2+ goals
29%
Conquista U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Grapiuna U20 (draw refunded)
63%
Conquista U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grapiuna U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Conquista U20 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grapiuna U20 attack 1.63 + Conquista U20 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Conquista U20 attack 0.86 + Grapiuna U20 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Grapiuna U20 scores more
46%
level
26%
Conquista U20 scores more
27%

Grapiuna U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Grapiuna U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grapiuna U20 vs Conquista U20

Conquista U20 beat Grapiuna U20 3-2 in Baiano U20 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Jonival Lucas in Barro Preto, Bahia.