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Conquista U20 vs Grapiuna U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Conquista U20
Conquista U20
FT
1 – 1
Grapiuna U20
Grapiuna U20
5/4/2025Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Lomanto Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Conquista U2048%
×Draw28%
Grapiuna U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conquista U20
1.32
Grapiuna U20
0.85

Conquista U20 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Conquista U20
1.90
Grapiuna U20
0.85

allows per match

Conquista U20
0.86
Grapiuna U20
0.75

finishing

Conquista U20+0.00on par
Grapiuna U20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conquista U20 ↓

Grapiuna U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Conquista U20 or draw
76%
Conquista U20 or Grapiuna U20
72%
Draw or Grapiuna U20
52%

Winning margin

Conquista U20 wins by 2+
22%
Grapiuna U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Conquista U20 1+ goals
73%
Conquista U20 2+ goals
38%
Conquista U20 3+ goals
15%
Grapiuna U20 1+ goals
57%
Grapiuna U20 2+ goals
21%
Grapiuna U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Conquista U20 (draw refunded)
66%
Grapiuna U20 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conquista U20 at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Grapiuna U20 away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conquista U20 attack 1.90 + Grapiuna U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.32

Grapiuna U20 attack 0.85 + Conquista U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Conquista U20 scores more
48%
level
28%
Grapiuna U20 scores more
24%

Conquista U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Conquista U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Conquista U20 1–1 Grapiuna U20

Conquista U20 and Grapiuna U20 drew 1-1 in Baiano U20 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Lomanto Júnior in Vitória da Conquista, Bahia.