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Grapiuna Itabuna vs Ypiranga BA — Baiano - 2 2019

Grapiuna Itabuna
Grapiuna Itabuna
FT
1 – 2
Ypiranga BA
Ypiranga BA
5/11/2025Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 3Estádio Lomanto Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Grapiuna Itabuna29%
×Draw25%
Ypiranga BA46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grapiuna Itabuna
1.17
Ypiranga BA
1.53

Ypiranga BA creates 31% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 5 away

creates per match

Grapiuna Itabuna
0.93
Ypiranga BA
1.00

allows per match

Grapiuna Itabuna
2.07
Ypiranga BA
1.40

finishing

Grapiuna Itabuna+0.00on par
Ypiranga BA+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grapiuna Itabuna ↓

Ypiranga BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Grapiuna Itabuna or draw
54%
Grapiuna Itabuna or Ypiranga BA
75%
Draw or Ypiranga BA
71%

Winning margin

Grapiuna Itabuna wins by 2+
12%
Ypiranga BA wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Grapiuna Itabuna 1+ goals
69%
Grapiuna Itabuna 2+ goals
33%
Grapiuna Itabuna 3+ goals
11%
Ypiranga BA 1+ goals
78%
Ypiranga BA 2+ goals
45%
Ypiranga BA 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Grapiuna Itabuna (draw refunded)
39%
Ypiranga BA (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grapiuna Itabuna at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 29 matches

Ypiranga BA away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grapiuna Itabuna attack 0.93 + Ypiranga BA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ypiranga BA attack 1.00 + Grapiuna Itabuna defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Grapiuna Itabuna scores more
29%
level
25%
Ypiranga BA scores more
46%

Ypiranga BA at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ypiranga BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Grapiuna Itabuna 1–2 Ypiranga BA

Ypiranga BA beat Grapiuna Itabuna 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Lomanto Júnior in Vitória da Conquista, Bahia.