Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grapiuna Itabuna vs Jacobinense — Baiano - 2 2019

Grapiuna Itabuna
Grapiuna Itabuna
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Jacobinense
Jacobinense
7/3/2024Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 7Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Grapiuna Itabuna34%
×Draw25%
Jacobinense41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grapiuna Itabuna
1.31
Jacobinense
1.48

Jacobinense creates 13% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 10 away

creates per match

Grapiuna Itabuna
0.93
Jacobinense
0.90

allows per match

Grapiuna Itabuna
2.07
Jacobinense
1.70

finishing

Grapiuna Itabuna+0.00on par
Jacobinense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grapiuna Itabuna ↓

Jacobinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Grapiuna Itabuna or draw
59%
Grapiuna Itabuna or Jacobinense
75%
Draw or Jacobinense
66%

Winning margin

Grapiuna Itabuna wins by 2+
15%
Jacobinense wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Grapiuna Itabuna 1+ goals
73%
Grapiuna Itabuna 2+ goals
38%
Grapiuna Itabuna 3+ goals
14%
Jacobinense 1+ goals
77%
Jacobinense 2+ goals
43%
Jacobinense 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Grapiuna Itabuna (draw refunded)
45%
Jacobinense (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grapiuna Itabuna at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 29 matches

Jacobinense away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grapiuna Itabuna attack 0.93 + Jacobinense defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.31

Jacobinense attack 0.90 + Grapiuna Itabuna defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Grapiuna Itabuna scores more
34%
level
25%
Jacobinense scores more
41%

Jacobinense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jacobinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Grapiuna Itabuna 4–1 Jacobinense

Grapiuna Itabuna beat Jacobinense 4-1 in Baiano - 2 on July 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Mário Pessoa in Ilhéus, Bahia.