Grapiuna Itabuna 1–1 Camaçariense: Result & Stats

Grapiuna Itabuna

FT

1 – 1

Camaçariense

7/11/2021

Baiano - 2 · Round 4Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Grapiuna Itabuna32%

×Draw25%

Camaçariense43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grapiuna ItabunaExpected goals in this matchCamaçariense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.53

Grapiuna Itabuna

1.30

Camaçariense

1.53

Camaçariense creates 18% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 3 away

0.93

creates per match

1.00

2.07

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Grapiuna Itabuna

0.93

Camaçariense

1.00

allows per match

Grapiuna Itabuna

2.07

Camaçariense

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grapiuna Itabuna+0.00on par

Camaçariense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grapiuna Itabuna ↓

Camaçariense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Grapiuna Itabuna or draw

57%

Grapiuna Itabuna or Camaçariense

75%

Draw or Camaçariense

68%

Winning margin

Grapiuna Itabuna wins by 2+

14%

Camaçariense wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Grapiuna Itabuna 1+ goals

73%

Grapiuna Itabuna 2+ goals

37%

Grapiuna Itabuna 3+ goals

14%

Camaçariense 1+ goals

78%

Camaçariense 2+ goals

45%

Camaçariense 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Grapiuna Itabuna (draw refunded)

43%

Camaçariense (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grapiuna Itabuna at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 29 matches

Camaçariense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grapiuna Itabuna attack 0.93 + Camaçariense defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Camaçariense attack 1.00 + Grapiuna Itabuna defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Grapiuna Itabuna scores more

32%

level

25%

Camaçariense scores more

43%

Camaçariense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Camaçariense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff