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GRAP vs União de Leiria — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

GRAP
GRAP
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
1/10/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 11Campo da Charneca dos Pousos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

GRAP6%
×Draw12%
União de Leiria82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GRAP
0.69
União de Leiria
2.92

União de Leiria creates 323% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

GRAP
0.83
União de Leiria
2.00

allows per match

GRAP
3.83
União de Leiria
0.55

finishing

GRAP+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GRAP ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–212%
0–312%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

GRAP or draw
18%
GRAP or União de Leiria
88%
Draw or União de Leiria
94%

Winning margin

GRAP wins by 2+
2%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

GRAP 1+ goals
50%
GRAP 2+ goals
15%
GRAP 3+ goals
3%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
94%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
78%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

GRAP (draw refunded)
7%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GRAP at home — creates 0.83, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GRAP attack 0.83 + União de Leiria defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.69

União de Leiria attack 2.00 + GRAP defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

GRAP scores more
6%
level
12%
União de Leiria scores more
82%

União de Leiria at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E: GRAP 1–2 União de Leiria

União de Leiria beat GRAP 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on January 10, 2021.

The match was played at Campo da Charneca dos Pousos in Pousos.