Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

GRAP vs Oleiros — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

GRAP
GRAP
CANC
19:30
Oleiros
Oleiros
1/27/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 9Campo da Charneca dos Pousos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

GRAP17%
×Draw18%
Oleiros65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GRAP
1.17
Oleiros
2.42

Oleiros creates 107% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

GRAP
0.83
Oleiros
1.00

allows per match

GRAP
3.83
Oleiros
1.50

finishing

GRAP+0.00on par
Oleiros+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GRAP ↓

Oleiros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

GRAP or draw
35%
GRAP or Oleiros
82%
Draw or Oleiros
83%

Winning margin

GRAP wins by 2+
6%
Oleiros wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

GRAP 1+ goals
69%
GRAP 2+ goals
33%
GRAP 3+ goals
11%
Oleiros 1+ goals
91%
Oleiros 2+ goals
69%
Oleiros 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

GRAP (draw refunded)
21%
Oleiros (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GRAP at home — creates 0.83, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

Oleiros away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GRAP attack 0.83 + Oleiros defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.17

Oleiros attack 1.00 + GRAP defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

GRAP scores more
17%
level
18%
Oleiros scores more
65%

Oleiros at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Oleiros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GRAP face Oleiros (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E)

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E returns with GRAP hosting Oleiros. Match starts January 27, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

GRAP host Oleiros at Campo da Charneca dos Pousos.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.