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GRAP vs Mortágua — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

GRAP
GRAP
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Mortágua
Mortágua
10/25/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 4Campo da Charneca dos Pousos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

GRAP14%
×Draw17%
Mortágua68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GRAP
1.09
Mortágua
2.55

Mortágua creates 134% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

GRAP
0.83
Mortágua
1.27

allows per match

GRAP
3.83
Mortágua
1.36

finishing

GRAP+0.00on par
Mortágua+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GRAP ↓

Mortágua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

GRAP or draw
32%
GRAP or Mortágua
83%
Draw or Mortágua
86%

Winning margin

GRAP wins by 2+
5%
Mortágua wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

GRAP 1+ goals
66%
GRAP 2+ goals
30%
GRAP 3+ goals
10%
Mortágua 1+ goals
92%
Mortágua 2+ goals
72%
Mortágua 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

GRAP (draw refunded)
17%
Mortágua (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GRAP at home — creates 0.83, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

Mortágua away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GRAP attack 0.83 + Mortágua defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Mortágua attack 1.27 + GRAP defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

GRAP scores more
14%
level
17%
Mortágua scores more
68%

Mortágua at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Mortágua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GRAP vs Mortágua

Mortágua beat GRAP 5-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Campo da Charneca dos Pousos in Pousos.