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GRAP vs Benfica Castelo Branco — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

GRAP
GRAP
CANC
15:00
Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
3/7/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 19Campo da Charneca dos Pousos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

GRAP10%
×Draw17%
Benfica Castelo Branco72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GRAP
0.71
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.27

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 220% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

GRAP
0.83
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.70

allows per match

GRAP
3.83
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.60

finishing

GRAP+0.00on par
Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GRAP ↓

Benfica Castelo Branco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–213%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

GRAP or draw
28%
GRAP or Benfica Castelo Branco
83%
Draw or Benfica Castelo Branco
90%

Winning margin

GRAP wins by 2+
3%
Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

GRAP 1+ goals
51%
GRAP 2+ goals
16%
GRAP 3+ goals
4%
Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
90%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
66%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

GRAP (draw refunded)
12%
Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GRAP at home — creates 0.83, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

Benfica Castelo Branco away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GRAP attack 0.83 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.71

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 0.70 + GRAP defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

GRAP scores more
10%
level
17%
Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
72%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GRAP face Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E)

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E returns with GRAP hosting Benfica Castelo Branco. Match starts March 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

GRAP host Benfica Castelo Branco at Campo da Charneca dos Pousos.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.