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GRAP vs Alcains — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

GRAP
GRAP
CANC
15:00
Alcains
Alcains
3/21/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 21Campo da Charneca dos Pousos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

GRAP27%
×Draw21%
Alcains52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GRAP
1.52
Alcains
2.17

Alcains creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

GRAP
0.83
Alcains
0.50

allows per match

GRAP
3.83
Alcains
2.20

finishing

GRAP+0.00on par
Alcains+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GRAP ↓

Alcains →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

GRAP or draw
48%
GRAP or Alcains
79%
Draw or Alcains
73%

Winning margin

GRAP wins by 2+
12%
Alcains wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

GRAP 1+ goals
78%
GRAP 2+ goals
45%
GRAP 3+ goals
20%
Alcains 1+ goals
89%
Alcains 2+ goals
64%
Alcains 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

GRAP (draw refunded)
34%
Alcains (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GRAP at home — creates 0.83, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

Alcains away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GRAP attack 0.83 + Alcains defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Alcains attack 0.50 + GRAP defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

GRAP scores more
27%
level
21%
Alcains scores more
52%

Alcains at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alcains will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GRAP face Alcains (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E)

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E returns with GRAP hosting Alcains. Match starts March 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

GRAP host Alcains at Campo da Charneca dos Pousos.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.