Granville 0–3 Niort: Result & Stats

Granville

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Niort

Y. Merdji 77'

J. Olaitan 69', 56'

1/7/2023

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade Louis-Dior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Granville35%

×Draw26%

Niort39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GranvilleExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.42

Granville

1.32

Niort

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.20

creates per match

1.43

1.40

allows per match

0.43

creates per match

Granville

2.20

Niort

1.43

allows per match

Granville

1.40

Niort

0.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granville+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granville ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Granville or draw

61%

Granville or Niort

74%

Draw or Niort

65%

Winning margin

Granville wins by 2+

15%

Niort wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Granville 1+ goals

73%

Granville 2+ goals

38%

Granville 3+ goals

15%

Niort 1+ goals

76%

Niort 2+ goals

41%

Niort 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Granville (draw refunded)

47%

Niort (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granville at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Niort away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granville attack 2.20 + Niort defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Niort attack 1.43 + Granville defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Granville scores more

35%

level

26%

Niort scores more

39%

Niort at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Olaitan

Niort · M

9.3

Match Events

7'

44'

45+3'

56'

58'

Y. Cassubie← M. Zemzemi

58'

Y. Merdji← K. Rocheteau

59'

Guillaume Buon

68'

V. Créhin← J. Kimmakon

69'

J. Olaitan↳ Y. Merdji

71'

S. Hamard← R. Lamrabette

71'

L. Nabab← T. Théault

75'

L. Manga← B. Boutobba

77'

Y. Merdji↳ J. Olaitan

80'

M. Gueddar← S. Sawadogo

80'

M. Legrand← T. Barré

81'

G. Kilama← B. Passi

81'

Nacim El Hassani← J. Olaitan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranvilleNiort

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots11

5Corners1

13Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots11

3On Target7

3Off Target2

5Blocked2

7Inside Box3

4Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

373Total Passes553

271Accurate Passes457

73%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2