Granville 6–0 Évreux 27: Result & Stats

Granville

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Évreux 27

11/19/2022

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade Louis-Dior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Granville57%

×Draw19%

Évreux 2724%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GranvilleExpected goals in this matchÉvreux 27

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.50

Granville

2.40

Évreux 27

1.50

Granville creates 60% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.20

creates per match

1.60

1.40

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Granville

2.20

Évreux 27

1.60

allows per match

Granville

1.40

Évreux 27

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granville+0.00on par

Évreux 27+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granville ↓

Évreux 27 →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Granville or draw

76%

Granville or Évreux 27

81%

Draw or Évreux 27

43%

Winning margin

Granville wins by 2+

36%

Évreux 27 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Granville 1+ goals

91%

Granville 2+ goals

69%

Granville 3+ goals

42%

Évreux 27 1+ goals

78%

Évreux 27 2+ goals

44%

Évreux 27 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Granville (draw refunded)

71%

Évreux 27 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Granville at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Évreux 27 away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Granville attack 2.20 + Évreux 27 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.40

Évreux 27 attack 1.60 + Granville defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Granville scores more

57%

level

19%

Évreux 27 scores more

24%

Granville at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Granville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff