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Granollers vs Reus — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Granollers
Granollers
FT
3 – 0
Reus
Reus
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 32Campo Municipal Carrer Girona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Granollers73%
×Draw18%
Reus10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granollers
2.21
Reus
0.65

Granollers creates 240% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 18 away

creates per match

Granollers
1.42
Reus
0.00

allows per match

Granollers
1.30
Reus
3.00

finishing

Granollers+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granollers ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Granollers or draw
90%
Granollers or Reus
82%
Draw or Reus
27%

Winning margin

Granollers wins by 2+
49%
Reus wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Granollers 1+ goals
89%
Granollers 2+ goals
65%
Granollers 3+ goals
38%
Reus 1+ goals
48%
Reus 2+ goals
14%
Reus 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Granollers (draw refunded)
88%
Reus (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granollers at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

Reus away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granollers attack 1.42 + Reus defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Reus attack 0.00 + Granollers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Granollers scores more
73%
level
18%
Reus scores more
10%

Granollers at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Granollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Granollers 3–0 Reus

Granollers beat Reus 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 5, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Carrer Girona in Granollers.