Granollers vs Igualada: Preview & Prediction

Granollers

CANC

00:00

Igualada

4/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 34Campo Municipal Carrer Girona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Granollers51%

×Draw24%

Igualada25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GranollersExpected goals in this matchIgualada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.11

Granollers

1.71

Igualada

1.11

Granollers creates 54% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 28 away

1.42

creates per match

0.93

1.30

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Granollers

1.42

Igualada

0.93

allows per match

Granollers

1.30

Igualada

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granollers+0.00on par

Igualada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granollers ↓

Igualada →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Granollers or draw

75%

Granollers or Igualada

76%

Draw or Igualada

49%

Winning margin

Granollers wins by 2+

28%

Igualada wins by 2+

Team goals

Granollers 1+ goals

82%

Granollers 2+ goals

51%

Granollers 3+ goals

24%

Igualada 1+ goals

67%

Igualada 2+ goals

30%

Igualada 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Granollers (draw refunded)

68%

Igualada (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Granollers at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

Igualada away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Granollers attack 1.42 + Igualada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Igualada attack 0.93 + Granollers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Granollers scores more

51%

level

24%

Igualada scores more

25%

Granollers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Granollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Granollers vs Igualada — Match Preview

Granollers face Igualada on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Granollers host Igualada at Campo Municipal Carrer Girona.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Granollers vs Igualada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Granollers vs Igualada — Match Preview