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Granitas vs Viltis Vilnius — Cup 2020

Granitas
Granitas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Viltis Vilnius
Viltis Vilniusadvanced
5/5/2023CupCup · Round of 32BFA Maniežas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Granitas25%
×Draw20%
Viltis Vilnius55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granitas
1.60
Viltis Vilnius
2.40

Viltis Vilnius creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Granitas
2.20
Viltis Vilnius
3.00

allows per match

Granitas
1.80
Viltis Vilnius
1.00

finishing

Granitas+0.00on par
Viltis Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granitas ↓

Viltis Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Granitas or draw
45%
Granitas or Viltis Vilnius
80%
Draw or Viltis Vilnius
75%

Winning margin

Granitas wins by 2+
12%
Viltis Vilnius wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Granitas 1+ goals
80%
Granitas 2+ goals
47%
Granitas 3+ goals
22%
Viltis Vilnius 1+ goals
91%
Viltis Vilnius 2+ goals
69%
Viltis Vilnius 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Granitas (draw refunded)
32%
Viltis Vilnius (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granitas at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Viltis Vilnius away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granitas attack 2.20 + Viltis Vilnius defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Viltis Vilnius attack 3.00 + Granitas defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Granitas scores more
25%
level
20%
Viltis Vilnius scores more
55%

Viltis Vilnius at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Viltis Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Granitas 1–2 Viltis Vilnius

Viltis Vilnius beat Granitas 2-1 in Cup on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at BFA Maniežas in Vilnius.