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Granitas vs Kauno Žalgiris — Cup 2020

Granitas
Granitas
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgirisadvanced
5/24/2022CupCup · Round of 16Vilnios naujoji aikštė

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Granitas15%
×Draw16%
Kauno Žalgiris69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granitas
1.22
Kauno Žalgiris
2.75

Kauno Žalgiris creates 125% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Granitas
2.20
Kauno Žalgiris
3.69

allows per match

Granitas
1.80
Kauno Žalgiris
0.23

finishing

Granitas+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granitas ↓

Kauno Žalgiris →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Granitas or draw
31%
Granitas or Kauno Žalgiris
84%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris
85%

Winning margin

Granitas wins by 2+
6%
Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Granitas 1+ goals
70%
Granitas 2+ goals
34%
Granitas 3+ goals
12%
Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
93%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
75%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Granitas (draw refunded)
18%
Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granitas at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Kauno Žalgiris away — creates 3.69, concedes 0.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granitas attack 2.20 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.23 → ÷2 → 1.22

Kauno Žalgiris attack 3.69 + Granitas defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Granitas scores more
15%
level
16%
Kauno Žalgiris scores more
69%

Kauno Žalgiris at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Granitas 0–4 Kauno Žalgiris

Kauno Žalgiris beat Granitas 4-0 in Cup on May 24, 2022.

The match was played at Vilnios naujoji aikštė in Vilnius.