Granit 0–5 Ruh Brest: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Granit

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Ruh Brest

7/6/2019

1. Division · Round 13Stadyen Poles'e (Luninets)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Granit18%

×Draw21%

Ruh Brest60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GranitExpected goals in this matchRuh Brest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.97

Granit

0.98

Ruh Brest

1.97

Ruh Brest creates 101% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 14 away

1.10

creates per match

2.43

1.51

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Granit

1.10

Ruh Brest

2.43

allows per match

Granit

1.51

Ruh Brest

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granit+0.00on par

Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit ↓

Ruh Brest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Granit or draw

40%

Granit or Ruh Brest

79%

Draw or Ruh Brest

82%

Winning margin

Granit wins by 2+

6%

Ruh Brest wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Granit 1+ goals

62%

Granit 2+ goals

26%

Granit 3+ goals

8%

Ruh Brest 1+ goals

86%

Ruh Brest 2+ goals

58%

Ruh Brest 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Granit (draw refunded)

23%

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.51 · 41 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit attack 1.10 + Ruh Brest defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.98

Ruh Brest attack 2.43 + Granit defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Granit scores more

18%

level

21%

Ruh Brest scores more

60%

Ruh Brest at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff