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Granit Vladaya vs Vitosha Bistritsa — Third League - Southwest 2018

Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
FT
1 – 3
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
10/9/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 12Stadion Vladaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Granit Vladaya32%
×Draw27%
Vitosha Bistritsa41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granit Vladaya
1.17
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.36

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 69 away

creates per match

Granit Vladaya
1.14
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.13

allows per match

Granit Vladaya
1.59
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.19

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw
59%
Granit Vladaya or Vitosha Bistritsa
73%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
68%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
13%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
69%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
33%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
11%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
74%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
39%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
44%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.13 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more
32%
level
27%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
41%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granit Vladaya vs Vitosha Bistritsa

Vitosha Bistritsa beat Granit Vladaya 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vladaia in Vladaya.