Granit Vladaya 2–0 Levski Chepintsi: Result & Stats

Granit Vladaya

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Levski Chepintsi

3/30/2022

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 25Stadion Vladaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Granit Vladaya67%

×Draw18%

Levski Chepintsi15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granit VladayaExpected goals in this matchLevski Chepintsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.10

Granit Vladaya

2.46

Levski Chepintsi

1.10

Granit Vladaya creates 124% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 36 away

1.14

creates per match

0.61

1.59

allows per match

3.78

creates per match

Granit Vladaya

1.14

Levski Chepintsi

0.61

allows per match

Granit Vladaya

1.59

Levski Chepintsi

3.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

Levski Chepintsi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw

85%

Granit Vladaya or Levski Chepintsi

82%

Draw or Levski Chepintsi

33%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+

45%

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals

91%

Granit Vladaya 2+ goals

70%

Granit Vladaya 3+ goals

44%

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals

67%

Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals

30%

Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)

81%

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

Levski Chepintsi away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + Levski Chepintsi defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.46

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.61 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more

67%

level

18%

Levski Chepintsi scores more

15%

Granit Vladaya at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Granit Vladaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff