Granit Vladaya 1–0 CSKA Sofia II: Result & Stats

Granit Vladaya

FT

1 – 0

CSKA Sofia II

10/29/2022

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 13Stadion Vladaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Granit Vladaya32%

×Draw25%

CSKA Sofia II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granit VladayaExpected goals in this matchCSKA Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.52

Granit Vladaya

1.29

CSKA Sofia II

1.52

CSKA Sofia II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 34 away

1.14

creates per match

1.44

1.59

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Granit Vladaya

1.14

CSKA Sofia II

1.44

allows per match

Granit Vladaya

1.59

CSKA Sofia II

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

CSKA Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw

57%

Granit Vladaya or CSKA Sofia II

75%

Draw or CSKA Sofia II

68%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+

14%

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals

72%

Granit Vladaya 2+ goals

37%

Granit Vladaya 3+ goals

14%

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals

78%

CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals

45%

CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)

43%

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.44 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more

32%

level

25%

CSKA Sofia II scores more

43%

CSKA Sofia II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff