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Granit Vladaya vs CSKA 1948 Sofia III — Third League - Southwest 2018

Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
FT
1 – 1
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
3/15/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 24Stadion Vladaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Granit Vladaya39%
×Draw25%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granit Vladaya
1.46
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 52 away

creates per match

Granit Vladaya
1.14
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.21

allows per match

Granit Vladaya
1.59
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.79

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw
64%
Granit Vladaya or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
75%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
61%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
18%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
77%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
43%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
18%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
75%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
41%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
52%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more
39%
level
25%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
36%

Granit Vladaya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Granit Vladaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Granit Vladaya 1–1 CSKA 1948 Sofia III

Granit Vladaya and CSKA 1948 Sofia III drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Vladaia in Vladaya.