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Granit Vladaya vs Botev Ihtiman — Third League - Southwest 2018

Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
FT
2 – 3
Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
5/27/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 11Stadion Vladaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Granit Vladaya40%
×Draw26%
Botev Ihtiman35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granit Vladaya
1.40
Botev Ihtiman
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 132 away

creates per match

Granit Vladaya
1.14
Botev Ihtiman
0.98

allows per match

Granit Vladaya
1.59
Botev Ihtiman
1.67

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par
Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

Botev Ihtiman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw
65%
Granit Vladaya or Botev Ihtiman
74%
Draw or Botev Ihtiman
60%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
18%
Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
75%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
41%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
17%
Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
72%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
37%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
53%
Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

Botev Ihtiman away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Botev Ihtiman attack 0.98 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more
40%
level
26%
Botev Ihtiman scores more
35%

Granit Vladaya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Granit Vladaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granit Vladaya vs Botev Ihtiman

Botev Ihtiman beat Granit Vladaya 3-2 in Third League - Southwest on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vladaia in Vladaya.