Granit Vladaya 3–2 Bansko: Result & Stats

Granit Vladaya

FT

3 – 2

Bansko

8/7/2021

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 1Stadion Vladaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Granit Vladaya36%

×Draw27%

Bansko38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granit VladayaExpected goals in this matchBansko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.29

Granit Vladaya

1.25

Bansko

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 129 away

1.14

creates per match

0.98

1.59

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Granit Vladaya

1.14

Bansko

0.98

allows per match

Granit Vladaya

1.59

Bansko

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Bansko+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

Bansko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw

62%

Granit Vladaya or Bansko

73%

Draw or Bansko

64%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+

15%

Bansko wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals

71%

Granit Vladaya 2+ goals

36%

Granit Vladaya 3+ goals

13%

Bansko 1+ goals

72%

Bansko 2+ goals

37%

Bansko 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)

49%

Bansko (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

Bansko away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + Bansko defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bansko attack 0.98 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more

36%

level

27%

Bansko scores more

38%

Bansko at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff