Grănicerul 0–1 Speranța Drochia: Result & Stats

Grănicerul

FT

0 – 1

Speranța Drochia

4/16/2019

League #395 · Round 2Stadionul Glodeni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Grănicerul52%

×Draw22%

Speranța Drochia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrănicerulExpected goals in this matchSperanța Drochia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.31

Grănicerul

1.92

Speranța Drochia

1.31

Grănicerul creates 47% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

1.11

1.50

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Grănicerul

1.50

Speranța Drochia

1.11

allows per match

Grănicerul

1.50

Speranța Drochia

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grănicerul+0.00on par

Speranța Drochia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grănicerul ↓

Speranța Drochia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Grănicerul or draw

74%

Grănicerul or Speranța Drochia

78%

Draw or Speranța Drochia

48%

Winning margin

Grănicerul wins by 2+

29%

Speranța Drochia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Grănicerul 1+ goals

85%

Grănicerul 2+ goals

57%

Grănicerul 3+ goals

30%

Speranța Drochia 1+ goals

73%

Speranța Drochia 2+ goals

38%

Speranța Drochia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Grănicerul (draw refunded)

66%

Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grănicerul at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Speranța Drochia away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grănicerul attack 1.50 + Speranța Drochia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Speranța Drochia attack 1.11 + Grănicerul defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Grănicerul scores more

52%

level

22%

Speranța Drochia scores more

26%

Grănicerul at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Grănicerul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff