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Grand-Saconnex vs Terre Sainte — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Grand-Saconnex
Grand-Saconnex
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
3/28/20241. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stade du Blanché

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Grand-Saconnex51%
×Draw22%
Terre Sainte27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grand-Saconnex
1.93
Terre Sainte
1.35

Grand-Saconnex creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 57 away

creates per match

Grand-Saconnex
1.70
Terre Sainte
1.23

allows per match

Grand-Saconnex
1.47
Terre Sainte
2.16

finishing

Grand-Saconnex+0.00on par
Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand-Saconnex ↓

Terre Sainte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Grand-Saconnex or draw
73%
Grand-Saconnex or Terre Sainte
78%
Draw or Terre Sainte
49%

Winning margin

Grand-Saconnex wins by 2+
29%
Terre Sainte wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Grand-Saconnex 1+ goals
85%
Grand-Saconnex 2+ goals
57%
Grand-Saconnex 3+ goals
30%
Terre Sainte 1+ goals
74%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
39%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Grand-Saconnex (draw refunded)
65%
Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand-Saconnex at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Terre Sainte away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand-Saconnex attack 1.70 + Terre Sainte defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.93

Terre Sainte attack 1.23 + Grand-Saconnex defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Grand-Saconnex scores more
51%
level
22%
Terre Sainte scores more
27%

Grand-Saconnex at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Grand-Saconnex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grand-Saconnex vs Terre Sainte

Grand-Saconnex beat Terre Sainte 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du Blanché in Le Grand-Saconnex.