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Grand Rapids vs Kings Hammer — USL League Two 2018

Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids
FT
2 – 3
Kings Hammer
Kings Hammer
5/28/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 12Midwest United FC Soccer Complex field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Grand Rapids47%
×Draw23%
Kings Hammer30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grand Rapids
1.85
Kings Hammer
1.45

Grand Rapids creates 28% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 33 away

creates per match

Grand Rapids
2.14
Kings Hammer
1.61

allows per match

Grand Rapids
1.29
Kings Hammer
1.55

finishing

Grand Rapids+0.00on par
Kings Hammer+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand Rapids ↓

Kings Hammer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Grand Rapids or draw
70%
Grand Rapids or Kings Hammer
77%
Draw or Kings Hammer
53%

Winning margin

Grand Rapids wins by 2+
26%
Kings Hammer wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Grand Rapids 1+ goals
84%
Grand Rapids 2+ goals
55%
Grand Rapids 3+ goals
28%
Kings Hammer 1+ goals
77%
Kings Hammer 2+ goals
42%
Kings Hammer 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Grand Rapids (draw refunded)
61%
Kings Hammer (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand Rapids at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Kings Hammer away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand Rapids attack 2.14 + Kings Hammer defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.85

Kings Hammer attack 1.61 + Grand Rapids defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Grand Rapids scores more
47%
level
23%
Kings Hammer scores more
30%

Grand Rapids at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grand Rapids vs Kings Hammer

Kings Hammer beat Grand Rapids 3-2 in USL League Two on May 28, 2021.

The match was played at Midwest United FC Soccer Complex field 1 in Kentwood.