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Grand Rapids vs Kalamazoo FC — USL League Two 2018

Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids
FT
1 – 1
Kalamazoo FC
Kalamazoo FC
5/21/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 7Midwest United FC Soccer Complex field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Grand Rapids43%
×Draw21%
Kalamazoo FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grand Rapids
2.02
Kalamazoo FC
1.81

Grand Rapids creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 40 away

creates per match

Grand Rapids
2.14
Kalamazoo FC
2.33

allows per match

Grand Rapids
1.29
Kalamazoo FC
1.90

finishing

Grand Rapids+0.00on par
Kalamazoo FC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand Rapids ↓

Kalamazoo FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Grand Rapids or draw
65%
Grand Rapids or Kalamazoo FC
79%
Draw or Kalamazoo FC
57%

Winning margin

Grand Rapids wins by 2+
24%
Kalamazoo FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Grand Rapids 1+ goals
87%
Grand Rapids 2+ goals
60%
Grand Rapids 3+ goals
33%
Kalamazoo FC 1+ goals
84%
Kalamazoo FC 2+ goals
54%
Kalamazoo FC 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Grand Rapids (draw refunded)
55%
Kalamazoo FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand Rapids at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Kalamazoo FC away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand Rapids attack 2.14 + Kalamazoo FC defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.02

Kalamazoo FC attack 2.33 + Grand Rapids defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Grand Rapids scores more
43%
level
21%
Kalamazoo FC scores more
35%

Grand Rapids at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grand Rapids 1 – 1 Kalamazoo FC

Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo FC drew 1-1 in USL League Two on May 21, 2021.

The match was played at Midwest United FC Soccer Complex field 1 in Kentwood.