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Grand Rapids vs Fort Wayne — USL League Two 2018

Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids
FT
0 – 0
Fort Wayne
Fort Wayne
5/16/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 4Midwest United FC Soccer Complex field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Grand Rapids39%
×Draw24%
Fort Wayne36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grand Rapids
1.56
Fort Wayne
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 32 away

creates per match

Grand Rapids
2.14
Fort Wayne
1.69

allows per match

Grand Rapids
1.29
Fort Wayne
0.97

finishing

Grand Rapids+0.00on par
Fort Wayne+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand Rapids ↓

Fort Wayne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Grand Rapids or draw
64%
Grand Rapids or Fort Wayne
76%
Draw or Fort Wayne
61%

Winning margin

Grand Rapids wins by 2+
19%
Fort Wayne wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Grand Rapids 1+ goals
79%
Grand Rapids 2+ goals
46%
Grand Rapids 3+ goals
21%
Fort Wayne 1+ goals
77%
Fort Wayne 2+ goals
44%
Fort Wayne 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Grand Rapids (draw refunded)
52%
Fort Wayne (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand Rapids at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Fort Wayne away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand Rapids attack 2.14 + Fort Wayne defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.56

Fort Wayne attack 1.69 + Grand Rapids defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grand Rapids scores more
39%
level
24%
Fort Wayne scores more
36%

Grand Rapids at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grand Rapids vs Fort Wayne

Grand Rapids and Fort Wayne drew 0-0 in USL League Two on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Midwest United FC Soccer Complex field 1 in Kentwood.