Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grand Rapids vs Dayton Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids
PST
23:30
Dayton Dutch Lions
Dayton Dutch Lions
5/30/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 16Houseman Field (Grand Rapids, Michigan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Grand Rapids64%
×Draw19%
Dayton Dutch Lions18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grand Rapids
2.36
Dayton Dutch Lions
1.16

Grand Rapids creates 103% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 40 away

creates per match

Grand Rapids
2.14
Dayton Dutch Lions
1.02

allows per match

Grand Rapids
1.29
Dayton Dutch Lions
2.58

finishing

Grand Rapids+0.00on par
Dayton Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand Rapids ↓

Dayton Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Grand Rapids or draw
82%
Grand Rapids or Dayton Dutch Lions
81%
Draw or Dayton Dutch Lions
36%

Winning margin

Grand Rapids wins by 2+
41%
Dayton Dutch Lions wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Grand Rapids 1+ goals
90%
Grand Rapids 2+ goals
68%
Grand Rapids 3+ goals
41%
Dayton Dutch Lions 1+ goals
69%
Dayton Dutch Lions 2+ goals
32%
Dayton Dutch Lions 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Grand Rapids (draw refunded)
78%
Dayton Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand Rapids at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Dayton Dutch Lions away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.58 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand Rapids attack 2.14 + Dayton Dutch Lions defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.36

Dayton Dutch Lions attack 1.02 + Grand Rapids defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Grand Rapids scores more
64%
level
19%
Dayton Dutch Lions scores more
18%

Grand Rapids at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grand Rapids face Dayton Dutch Lions (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Grand Rapids hosting Dayton Dutch Lions. Match starts May 30, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Grand Rapids host Dayton Dutch Lions at Houseman Field (Grand Rapids, Michigan).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.