Dayton Dutch Lions 1–6 Grand Rapids: Result & Stats

Dayton Dutch Lions

FT

1 – 6

Grand Rapids

7/10/2021

USL League Two · Round 49Dayton Outpatient Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dayton Dutch Lions12%

×Draw16%

Grand Rapids72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dayton Dutch LionsExpected goals in this matchGrand Rapids

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

2.71

Dayton Dutch Lions

1.02

Grand Rapids

2.71

Grand Rapids creates 166% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 7 away

0.90

creates per match

2.86

2.55

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Dayton Dutch Lions

0.90

Grand Rapids

2.86

allows per match

Dayton Dutch Lions

2.55

Grand Rapids

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dayton Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Grand Rapids+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dayton Dutch Lions ↓

Grand Rapids →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–17%

0–29%

0–38%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Dayton Dutch Lions or draw

28%

Dayton Dutch Lions or Grand Rapids

84%

Draw or Grand Rapids

88%

Winning margin

Dayton Dutch Lions wins by 2+

4%

Grand Rapids wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Dayton Dutch Lions 1+ goals

64%

Dayton Dutch Lions 2+ goals

27%

Dayton Dutch Lions 3+ goals

8%

Grand Rapids 1+ goals

93%

Grand Rapids 2+ goals

75%

Grand Rapids 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Dayton Dutch Lions (draw refunded)

14%

Grand Rapids (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dayton Dutch Lions at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.55 · 42 matches

Grand Rapids away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dayton Dutch Lions attack 0.90 + Grand Rapids defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Grand Rapids attack 2.86 + Dayton Dutch Lions defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Dayton Dutch Lions scores more

12%

level

16%

Grand Rapids scores more

72%

Grand Rapids at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff