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Istiqlol vs CSKA Pomir — Vysshaya Liga 2014

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
FT
4 – 0
CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
10/29/2014Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 14Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Istiqlol55%
×Draw26%
CSKA Pomir19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
1.52
CSKA Pomir
0.78

Istiqlol creates 95% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 20 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
2.04
CSKA Pomir
1.15

allows per match

Istiqlol
0.42
CSKA Pomir
1.00

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

CSKA Pomir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
81%
Istiqlol or CSKA Pomir
74%
Draw or CSKA Pomir
45%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
29%
CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
78%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
45%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
20%
CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
54%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
18%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
74%
CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.42 · 24 matches

CSKA Pomir away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 2.04 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

CSKA Pomir attack 1.15 + Istiqlol defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Istiqlol scores more
55%
level
26%
CSKA Pomir scores more
19%

Istiqlol at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Istiqlol 4–0 CSKA Pomir

Istiqlol beat CSKA Pomir 4-0 in Vysshaya Liga on October 29, 2014.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze in Dushanbe.