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Portstewart vs Donegal Celtic — Premier Intermediate League 2017

Portstewart
Portstewart
FT
2 – 1
Donegal Celtic
Donegal Celtic
12/16/2017Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 11Seahaven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Portstewart60%
×Draw21%
Donegal Celtic19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portstewart
2.04
Donegal Celtic
1.06

Portstewart creates 92% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Portstewart
2.09
Donegal Celtic
1.22

allows per match

Portstewart
0.91
Donegal Celtic
2.00

finishing

Portstewart+0.00on par
Donegal Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portstewart ↓

Donegal Celtic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Portstewart or draw
81%
Portstewart or Donegal Celtic
79%
Draw or Donegal Celtic
40%

Winning margin

Portstewart wins by 2+
36%
Donegal Celtic wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Portstewart 1+ goals
87%
Portstewart 2+ goals
60%
Portstewart 3+ goals
33%
Donegal Celtic 1+ goals
65%
Donegal Celtic 2+ goals
29%
Donegal Celtic 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Portstewart (draw refunded)
76%
Donegal Celtic (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portstewart at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Donegal Celtic away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portstewart attack 2.09 + Donegal Celtic defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Donegal Celtic attack 1.22 + Portstewart defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Portstewart scores more
60%
level
21%
Donegal Celtic scores more
19%

Portstewart at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Portstewart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Intermediate League: Portstewart 2–1 Donegal Celtic

Portstewart beat Donegal Celtic 2-1 in Premier Intermediate League on December 16, 2017.

The match was played at Seahaven in Portstewart.