Armagh City 2–0 Sport & Leisure Swifts

Armagh City

FT

2 – 0

Sport & Leisure Swifts

12/2/2017

League #561 · Round 10Holm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Armagh City57%

×Draw20%

Sport & Leisure Swifts23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Armagh CityExpected goals in this matchSport & Leisure Swifts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.42

Armagh City

2.29

Sport & Leisure Swifts

1.42

Armagh City creates 61% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

1.50

creates per match

1.33

1.50

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Armagh City

1.50

Sport & Leisure Swifts

1.33

allows per match

Armagh City

1.50

Sport & Leisure Swifts

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armagh City+0.00on par

Sport & Leisure Swifts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armagh City ↓

Sport & Leisure Swifts →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Armagh City or draw

77%

Armagh City or Sport & Leisure Swifts

80%

Draw or Sport & Leisure Swifts

43%

Winning margin

Armagh City wins by 2+

35%

Sport & Leisure Swifts wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Armagh City 1+ goals

90%

Armagh City 2+ goals

66%

Armagh City 3+ goals

40%

Sport & Leisure Swifts 1+ goals

76%

Sport & Leisure Swifts 2+ goals

41%

Sport & Leisure Swifts 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Armagh City (draw refunded)

71%

Sport & Leisure Swifts (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armagh City at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Sport & Leisure Swifts away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armagh City attack 1.50 + Sport & Leisure Swifts defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.29

Sport & Leisure Swifts attack 1.33 + Armagh City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Armagh City scores more

57%

level

20%

Sport & Leisure Swifts scores more

23%

Armagh City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Armagh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff