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Grand Bodø vs Øvrevoll Hosle — 1. Division Women 2022

Grand Bodø
Grand Bodø
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Øvrevoll Hosle
Øvrevoll Hosle
8/7/20221. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 15Nordlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Grand Bodø55%
×Draw21%
Øvrevoll Hosle24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grand Bodø
2.11
Øvrevoll Hosle
1.35

Grand Bodø creates 56% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 37 away

creates per match

Grand Bodø
2.00
Øvrevoll Hosle
1.54

allows per match

Grand Bodø
1.17
Øvrevoll Hosle
2.22

finishing

Grand Bodø+0.00on par
Øvrevoll Hosle+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand Bodø ↓

Øvrevoll Hosle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Grand Bodø or draw
76%
Grand Bodø or Øvrevoll Hosle
79%
Draw or Øvrevoll Hosle
45%

Winning margin

Grand Bodø wins by 2+
33%
Øvrevoll Hosle wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Grand Bodø 1+ goals
88%
Grand Bodø 2+ goals
62%
Grand Bodø 3+ goals
35%
Øvrevoll Hosle 1+ goals
74%
Øvrevoll Hosle 2+ goals
39%
Øvrevoll Hosle 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Grand Bodø (draw refunded)
69%
Øvrevoll Hosle (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand Bodø at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Øvrevoll Hosle away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand Bodø attack 2.00 + Øvrevoll Hosle defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

Øvrevoll Hosle attack 1.54 + Grand Bodø defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Grand Bodø scores more
55%
level
21%
Øvrevoll Hosle scores more
24%

Grand Bodø at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Grand Bodø will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: Grand Bodø 0–2 Øvrevoll Hosle

Øvrevoll Hosle beat Grand Bodø 2-0 in 1. Division Women on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Nordlandshallen in Bodø.