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Grand Bodø vs Medkila — 1. Division Women 2022

Grand Bodø
Grand Bodø
FT
4 – 1
Medkila
Medkila
5/21/20221. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 9Nordlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Grand Bodø76%
×Draw15%
Medkila9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grand Bodø
2.62
Medkila
0.77

Grand Bodø creates 240% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Grand Bodø
2.00
Medkila
0.38

allows per match

Grand Bodø
1.17
Medkila
3.23

finishing

Grand Bodø+0.00on par
Medkila+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand Bodø ↓

Medkila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Grand Bodø or draw
91%
Grand Bodø or Medkila
85%
Draw or Medkila
24%

Winning margin

Grand Bodø wins by 2+
55%
Medkila wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Grand Bodø 1+ goals
93%
Grand Bodø 2+ goals
73%
Grand Bodø 3+ goals
48%
Medkila 1+ goals
54%
Medkila 2+ goals
18%
Medkila 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Grand Bodø (draw refunded)
90%
Medkila (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand Bodø at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Medkila away — creates 0.38, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand Bodø attack 2.00 + Medkila defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.62

Medkila attack 0.38 + Grand Bodø defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Grand Bodø scores more
76%
level
15%
Medkila scores more
9%

Grand Bodø at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Grand Bodø will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: Grand Bodø 4–1 Medkila

Grand Bodø beat Medkila 4-1 in 1. Division Women on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Nordlandshallen in Bodø.