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Grand Bodø vs Fortuna Ålesund — 1. Division Women 2022

Grand Bodø
Grand Bodø
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Ålesund
Fortuna Ålesund
6/5/20221. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 11Nordlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Grand Bodø43%
×Draw24%
Fortuna Ålesund33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grand Bodø
1.63
Fortuna Ålesund
1.42

Grand Bodø creates 15% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 48 away

creates per match

Grand Bodø
2.00
Fortuna Ålesund
1.67

allows per match

Grand Bodø
1.17
Fortuna Ålesund
1.25

finishing

Grand Bodø+0.00on par
Fortuna Ålesund+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand Bodø ↓

Fortuna Ålesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Grand Bodø or draw
67%
Grand Bodø or Fortuna Ålesund
76%
Draw or Fortuna Ålesund
57%

Winning margin

Grand Bodø wins by 2+
22%
Fortuna Ålesund wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Grand Bodø 1+ goals
80%
Grand Bodø 2+ goals
48%
Grand Bodø 3+ goals
22%
Fortuna Ålesund 1+ goals
76%
Fortuna Ålesund 2+ goals
41%
Fortuna Ålesund 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Grand Bodø (draw refunded)
56%
Fortuna Ålesund (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand Bodø at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Fortuna Ålesund away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand Bodø attack 2.00 + Fortuna Ålesund defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Fortuna Ålesund attack 1.67 + Grand Bodø defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Grand Bodø scores more
43%
level
24%
Fortuna Ålesund scores more
33%

Grand Bodø at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grand Bodø will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: Grand Bodø 1–2 Fortuna Ålesund

Fortuna Ålesund beat Grand Bodø 2-1 in 1. Division Women on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Nordlandshallen in Bodø.