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Granada vs Real Betis W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Granada
Granada
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Real Betis W
Real Betis W
5/11/2024Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 27Ciudad Deportiva del Granada CF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Granada46%
×Draw24%
Real Betis W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada
1.66
Real Betis W
1.27

Granada creates 31% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 104 away

creates per match

Granada
1.22
Real Betis W
1.03

allows per match

Granada
1.51
Real Betis W
2.10

finishing

Granada+0.00on par
Real Betis W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada ↓

Real Betis W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Granada or draw
71%
Granada or Real Betis W
76%
Draw or Real Betis W
54%

Winning margin

Granada wins by 2+
24%
Real Betis W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Granada 1+ goals
81%
Granada 2+ goals
49%
Granada 3+ goals
23%
Real Betis W 1+ goals
72%
Real Betis W 2+ goals
36%
Real Betis W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Granada (draw refunded)
61%
Real Betis W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

Real Betis W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada attack 1.22 + Real Betis W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.66

Real Betis W attack 1.03 + Granada defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Granada scores more
46%
level
24%
Real Betis W scores more
29%

Granada at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Granada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granada vs Real Betis W

Real Betis W beat Granada 3-2 in Primera División Femenina on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Granada CF in Granada.