Granada 1–0 Madrid CFF W: Result & Stats

Granada

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Madrid CFF W

E. Imade 19'

12/14/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 13Ciudad Deportiva del Granada CF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Granada42%

×Draw24%

Madrid CFF W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GranadaExpected goals in this matchMadrid CFF W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.48

Granada

1.67

Madrid CFF W

1.48

Granada creates 13% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 119 away

1.22

creates per match

1.44

1.51

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Granada

1.22

Madrid CFF W

1.44

allows per match

Granada

1.51

Madrid CFF W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada+0.00on par

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada ↓

Madrid CFF W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Granada or draw

66%

Granada or Madrid CFF W

76%

Draw or Madrid CFF W

58%

Winning margin

Granada wins by 2+

22%

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Granada 1+ goals

81%

Granada 2+ goals

50%

Granada 3+ goals

23%

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals

77%

Madrid CFF W 2+ goals

43%

Madrid CFF W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Granada (draw refunded)

55%

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada attack 1.22 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + Granada defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Granada scores more

42%

level

24%

Madrid CFF W scores more

34%

Granada at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Granada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

E. Imade

Granada · F

7.9

Match Events

4'

C. Postigo

19'

E. Imade

24'

S. Villafane

46'

K. Araya← H. Antonsdóttir

46'

Emily Assis← Bárbara López

69'

A. Cometti

78'

Alba Ruiz← Cristina Librán

78'

Esther Laborde← M. Marcetto

78'

K. McKenna← K. Melgård

80'

A. Gomez

81'

Ornella Vignola← Andrea Gómez

81'

Isabel Álvarez← Miku Kojima

90+7'

Lucía Ramos← Alexia Fernández

90+3'

Paula Arana← Lauri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaMadrid

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots7

5Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots7

3On Target2

5Off Target3

2Blocked2

4Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

442Total Passes338

350Accurate Passes241

79%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1