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Granada II vs San Fernando CD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Granada II
Granada II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
4/21/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Ciudad Deportiva del Granada CF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Granada II39%
×Draw28%
San Fernando CD32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada II
1.23
San Fernando CD
1.09

Granada II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Granada II
0.95
San Fernando CD
1.03

allows per match

Granada II
1.16
San Fernando CD
1.50

finishing

Granada II+0.00on par
San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada II ↓

San Fernando CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Granada II or draw
68%
Granada II or San Fernando CD
72%
Draw or San Fernando CD
61%

Winning margin

Granada II wins by 2+
17%
San Fernando CD wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Granada II 1+ goals
71%
Granada II 2+ goals
35%
Granada II 3+ goals
13%
San Fernando CD 1+ goals
66%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
30%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Granada II (draw refunded)
55%
San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada II at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada II attack 0.95 + San Fernando CD defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

San Fernando CD attack 1.03 + Granada II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Granada II scores more
39%
level
28%
San Fernando CD scores more
32%

Granada II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Granada II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granada II vs San Fernando CD

Granada II beat San Fernando CD 5-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Granada CF in Granada.