Granada II 2–1 Recreativo Huelva: Result & Stats

Granada II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Recreativo Huelva

5/18/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Granada II39%

×Draw29%

Recreativo Huelva31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada IIExpected goals in this matchRecreativo Huelva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.01

Granada II

1.17

Recreativo Huelva

1.01

Granada II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

0.95

creates per match

0.87

1.16

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Granada II

0.95

Recreativo Huelva

0.87

allows per match

Granada II

1.16

Recreativo Huelva

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada II+0.00on par

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada II ↓

Recreativo Huelva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Granada II or draw

69%

Granada II or Recreativo Huelva

71%

Draw or Recreativo Huelva

61%

Winning margin

Granada II wins by 2+

17%

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Granada II 1+ goals

69%

Granada II 2+ goals

33%

Granada II 3+ goals

11%

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals

64%

Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals

27%

Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Granada II (draw refunded)

56%

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada II at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada II attack 0.95 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Recreativo Huelva attack 0.87 + Granada II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Granada II scores more

39%

level

29%

Recreativo Huelva scores more

31%

Granada II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Granada II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff