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Granada II vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Granada II
Granada II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Real Murcia
Real Murcia
8/27/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Granada II30%
×Draw29%
Real Murcia41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada II
0.96
Real Murcia
1.17

Real Murcia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

creates per match

Granada II
0.95
Real Murcia
1.18

allows per match

Granada II
1.16
Real Murcia
0.97

finishing

Granada II+0.00on par
Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada II ↓

Real Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Granada II or draw
59%
Granada II or Real Murcia
71%
Draw or Real Murcia
70%

Winning margin

Granada II wins by 2+
11%
Real Murcia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Granada II 1+ goals
62%
Granada II 2+ goals
25%
Granada II 3+ goals
7%
Real Murcia 1+ goals
69%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
33%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Granada II (draw refunded)
42%
Real Murcia (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada II at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada II attack 0.95 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Granada II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Granada II scores more
30%
level
29%
Real Murcia scores more
41%

Real Murcia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granada II vs Real Murcia

Real Murcia beat Granada II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.