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Granada II vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Granada II
Granada II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Melilla
Melilla
1/4/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Ciudad Deportiva del Granada CF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Granada II50%
×Draw28%
Melilla21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada II
1.34
Melilla
0.76

Granada II creates 76% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Granada II
0.95
Melilla
0.37

allows per match

Granada II
1.16
Melilla
1.74

finishing

Granada II+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada II ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Granada II or draw
79%
Granada II or Melilla
72%
Draw or Melilla
50%

Winning margin

Granada II wins by 2+
24%
Melilla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Granada II 1+ goals
74%
Granada II 2+ goals
39%
Granada II 3+ goals
15%
Melilla 1+ goals
53%
Melilla 2+ goals
18%
Melilla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Granada II (draw refunded)
70%
Melilla (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada II at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Melilla away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada II attack 0.95 + Melilla defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.34

Melilla attack 0.37 + Granada II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Granada II scores more
50%
level
28%
Melilla scores more
21%

Granada II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Granada II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granada II vs Melilla

Melilla beat Granada II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 4, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Granada CF in Granada.